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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd